Almost a third of Muscovites support the protests because of opposition candidates removed from the Moscow City Duma elections. At the same time, the awareness of the residents of the capital about street rallies has grown significantly over the past week: if at the beginning of last week about 40% of Muscovites heard about the protest, then this week – already 60%, according to a survey of the Petersburg Politics Foundation.
As a result of the protest rally on July 27, the Petersburg Politics Foundation conducted a telephone survey of 1,200 residents of Moscow. It follows from this that the number of people who know about the rallies in the capital has increased from 41.2% to 62.4%. At the same time, the number of those who hear about stocks for the first time has almost halved, from 37.6% to 16.3%.
Rallies against the denial of registration to opposition candidates began on July 14. The first rally was not agreed with the authorities and gathered hundreds of participants. A week later, according to the White Counter, about 22 thousand protesters came to an already agreed rally on Sakharov Avenue . On July 27, thousands of people went out to an uncoordinated rally near the Moscow City Hall, of which 1,373 people were detained , according to OVD-Info .
According to the results of a survey conducted by Petersburg Politics, rallies support a third of respondents – 30.6%. Compared to the previous week, these indicators remained virtually unchanged (31.2%). 37.7% of respondents do not support the stock (a week ago there were 30.6%). Moreover, in comparison with the previous week, the number of those who care about what is happening in the capital has decreased – from 20% to 15.4%.
Bad news for City Hall
Political scientist Abbas Gallyamov said that there is a polarization of voters: “The number of those who refuse to support the protesters has increased at the expense of those who have previously stated that he does not care about the whole story, and those who found it difficult to determine their attitude. These are the most passive groups of the population, and they are not inclined to support a radical protest. After the scenes of violence began to prevail in the publications, these people felt discomfort and decided that they did not like what was happening. ”
The expert emphasizes that the level of support for the protesters “remains stably high – 30%”: “There are not many opponents of protest. But we must bear in mind that the first group is much more active – they are likely to come to the polls in a much more complete composition than their opponents. Therefore, the problem of the authorities lies not only in the plane of street confrontation, but also in the electoral plane. ”
Oleg Ignatov, deputy director of the Center for Political Conjuncture, agrees with this: “Protests mobilize the dissatisfied. In this situation, it is important for the authorities to create motives for participating in the elections of their electorate. Whether they are now is more likely not, but perhaps we will see something similar in the future. Otherwise, there will be a game, who outweighs whom – the administrative turnout or angry citizens. ”
“The fracture did not happen”
President of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation Mikhail Vinogradov believes that “there is no need to speak of universal support for the protest”: “The reasons for this are different: someone seeks to stay away from politics, someone seeks to convince himself that all parties are equally bad, others he doesn’t believe in protest energy, or even in the changeability of political life. ” In his opinion, the protest “aroused interest, but so far did not cause a sensation of an achievable powerful fracture.
The fact that the protests did not affect their decision to vote in elections to the Moscow City Duma, 80.2% of respondents said. Only 4% of respondents said they did not plan to go to vote before, but now they will. However, after the July 21 rally, 88% of respondents said that the action did not affect their position in any way.
Responsibility for the refusal of registration to “some candidates” was given by the respondents primarily to the candidates themselves – 23.9%. About the same amount (23%) is blamed for what happened by the authorities – the Moscow City Electoral Commission, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, the United Russia party, the president, the Russian government, and the Moscow government. The figure was the same last week. “The sociological measurement of such a category as“ guilt ”is absurd,” political analyst Gleb Kuznetsov believes. – No matter how you ask a question in a wide audience, the number of those who will blame conditional “victims” will always correspond to those who blame conditional “violence”. “It’s your fault”, “you need to be careful,” “if you behaved differently” – this is a traditional sociologically significant set of answers about any “guilt”.