Recent Geopolitical Trends in the Islamic World

1. Indian attack on Kashmir

Kashmir, which India inherited when dividing the Subcontinent into a predominantly Hindu and Muslim (Pakistan) state, has remained the Ummah hot spot for nearly 70 years. However, now, against the background of the rise to power and strengthening of the radical Hindu Bharatiya Janat Parti (BJP), instead of a secular nationalist Indian National Congress (INC), something more is happening than the exclusion of Muslim territory from the Muslim state of Pakistan.

It is a policy of radical Hindus to deprive Kashmir of his Muslim identity by abolishing autonomous status and changing the demographic balance. In other words, Kashmir could turn into a new Xinjiang Uyghur region, and the most dramatic thing in this situation is that, as in the case of the Uyghurs, there is no real force that can not only protest against this, as Pakistan does, but prevent the nuclear giant of India realize her plans.


2. The Case of Zakir Naik and the Chinese Problem

As we wrote , the famous Indian Muslim preacher Zakir Naik, forced to leave his homeland due to persecution by the BJP and found shelter in Malaysia, was almost extradited from this country back to India after his statements in defense of the Uighurs and against the privileged position of the Chinese and Hindu communities in the Muslim countries of Southeast Asia – amid the persecution of the Muslim minority in India and China.

As a result, Naika was forced to apologize to the Chinese and Indians of Malaysia for racially sensitive comments addressed to them, banning him from any public sermon in this country, which he was actually recommended to find a replacement.

Our author Yakub Hadzic in this regard has already written about the vulnerability of Malaysia as a (many) national state, despite the fact that it is headed by Prime Minister Mohammad Mahathir, known for pan-Islamic views, before ethnic conflicts between Malay Muslims and Chinese and Hindu communities. However, let us point to another aspect – returning to the question of Kashmir, in fact, the main tactical ally of his Muslims in the confrontation of India is … it is China, which itself suppresses its Uighurs.

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On the other hand, as we wrote in an article about protests in Hong Kong, today it would be a mistake to consider the Chinese as a racial enemy of Muslims, and not only because it contradicts Islamic beliefs that reject racism, but also because there are many ethnic Chinese who are opposed to the communist regime in Beijing. They are at least in Hong Kong, there are in Singapore and they should be in the Chinese diasporas in Southeast Asia. Anyway, why, instead of confronting all the Chinese people living in the Muslim countries of this region, do not try to deploy a benevolent Islamic appeal among them, supporting the Chinese Muslims in this? Then the Chinese in Muslim countries could become not agents of Beijing’s influence, but, on the contrary, a factor in the influence of these countries on the huge Chinese world, which Muslims cannot yet defeat in a head-on collision.


3. UAE policy – KSA and the growing split between them

Awarding the leader of the militant Hindus, Narendra Modi, one of the UAE’s highest awards against the backdrop of the campaign launched against Muslims of Kashmir once again makes us think about the role that this small state plays in the Islamic world.

The UAE, in conjunction with the KSA, supported the overthrow of Muhammad Mursi in Egypt, the military rebellion of General Khalifa Haftar in Libya, the blockade of Qatar, and specifically the UAE also lobbied for curtailing aid to Syrian rebels and steps towards reconciliation with the Assad regime. We must add persistent services to them lobbying the Zionists for a solution to the Palestinian issue, and now we see the support of the Modi regime, which wants to solve its Kashmir issue in much the same way as its friend Netanyahu does with the Palestinian question.

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That is, both of these countries are at the forefront of initiatives against any Islamic forces, which cannot but cause disappointment, given that the first of them is under Islamic shrines, and the second shows a rare example of a Muslim country that is successful in technological and economic development. On the other hand, is there any value in worldly development if its fruits turn to the fight against religion? The question is rhetorical. The practical question is whether it will be possible to change these regimes and / or their course so as to preserve their objective achievements and not turn these countries into the ruins of civil wars … And the last option is not so fantastic, given the fact that recent events in Yemen clearly demonstrated the limits of cooperation between the Emirates and the Saudis and the growing split between them.


4. Turkey – Qatar as an alternative … weak

Against the backdrop of the UAE’s policy to support the Modi regime, the Qatar government’s statement that it will refuse to support China’s repressive policy against the Uyghurs, coupled with Turkey’s earlier cautious statements in defense of the Uyghurs, once again demonstrate that only these two countries and their bunch remain the Muslim states that, although they would declaratively try to take into account the general Islamic agenda in their policies.

Alas, the failure of Turkish politics in Idlib , immediately showed another – the gap between words and deeds and the practical weakness of this duet in a big geopolitical game. In this regard, it remains to be hoped that Erdogan will be able to at least compensate for the territorial losses in Idlib commensurate or large with the expansion of the Turkish security zone in northeastern Syria, as well as defend at least a symbolic part of this province, having drawn that really before the Damask regime and its allies a red line that is not allowed to be crossed in relations with Turkey …

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5. IG – not an alternative

Amid all the problems and failures of the Muslim states and the rebels dependent on them, Syria does not look like sensational talk about a new revival of the Islamic State *. Here, however, we must make a reservation that the source of this information – the American military intelligence circles – is understandably interested in supporting the topic of the threat of IS or the revival of IS in order to allocate appropriate budgets to counter it.

And yet, it will not be psychologically surprising if, against the backdrop of the absolute depravity or helplessness of Muslim states, some of the Muslims, frustrated by the sad situation of the Ummah and their co-religionists, will turn their eyes to an alternative to the so-called Islamic state, “uncompromising and unshakable.”

You just need to understand that this alternative has demonstrated its complete destructiveness just at the moment when its carriers had brilliant opportunities to create a truly revolutionary Islamic project that could count on the support of millions of Muslims and not only. However, instead, this project actually became a trojan, leaving behind its ruins and scorched earth even where Muslim forces, split and opposed to the rest of the world with its appearance, had the opportunity to firmly stand on their feet.

This story should teach us that simple and superficially effective solutions are not always effective and are not always what they say they are, and in some cases quite the opposite. So, no matter how complicated the situation that is developing in the Islamic world, one should look for solutions that will contribute to its improvement, rather than exacerbation.

Especially for you Alihanrin Alihan!

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There is no deity but God. Muhammad is the messenger of God.